School Bond Update

The Amos Group

2025 K–12 Referendums: Key Issues, Climate, and Predictions

What is the outlook for the 2025 K-12 Bond market, given the end of COVID relief funds, inflation, potential tariffs, and an off-year election?

By Petra Sucher, The Amos Group

Bonds provide an alternative to using limited state or local funds, which are often insufficient for large-
scale infrastructure investments. School districts raise bonds primarily through tax elections to fund essential capital projects, such as building or renovating schools, upgrading technology, and improving facilities. Over the past few years new construction projects took a back seat to pandemic relief priorities. Local resources were directed toward remote/hybrid learning environments, health and safety infrastructure to address social
distancing measures, and equipment to improve ventilation/air quality in schools. With the pandemic behind us and the expiration of ESSER funds, districts will likely redirect their resources to priorities previously outlined in their strategic capital improvement plan. However, economic and demographic trends are creating
uncertainty in the industry.

Given the current climate, our researchers are seeing some emerging patterns:

  • A focus on a four-day school week as a cost-saving measure to address declining enrollment
  • More states contemplating restricting when school tax elections can be presented to voters:
    • Nebraska will see a new state law effective August 1, 2025, requiring referendum votes to be held at either a primary or general election.
    • In Michigan, House Bill No. 4583, if passed, would limit tax elections to twice yearly, and then once annually (in November) starting in 2026. These changes could significantly impact how districts secure funding for projects.
  • Districts often finding themselves needing to pass operating referendums and/or balance budgets before they can ask voters for money to fix or build facilities
  • Articles and board meetings are having discussions about banning cell phones, and some states have already implemented such policies or require schools to do so:
    • Ohio and Michigan, for instance, have introduced bills to limit cell phone usage in public schools.

Inflation impacts school funding and bond issues through increased borrowing, leading to higher interest rates, which in turn increase bond repayment as well as debt. Increased tariffs can increase costs of materials and limit competition, leading to project overruns, delays and reprioritization of capital projects. If voters feel strained, it may lead to voter hesitancy to support referendums. Open channels of communication between district, board, and community stakeholders are vital to gaining support for funding investment decisions.

For education companies seeking to partner with districts that have passed bonds and are likely to have significant needs, a strategic approach to outreach is important. District leaders often face an overwhelming volume of unsolicited communications. To stand out, be targeted and precise in your efforts. Leverage existing strong relationships by asking satisfied district leaders for introductions to other districts with similar requirements. Prioritize adding value from the outset by thoroughly researching a district’s specific needs
and priorities, ensuring your products or services are a genuine fit. Utilize resources like SchoolBondFinder and review district strategic plans to understand optimal contact timing. Build relationships with district leaders well in advance as a value-add partner, and importantly, inquire about their preferred engagement methods, then honor their feedback. The timing and type of outreach should align with where your solutions fit within the timeline of large-scale district projects. Ultimately, success lies in establishing yourself as a trusted partner, your company as a quality provider that delivers on its promises, and your offerings as a suitable solution for the district’s needs.

2024 proved to be an exceptional banner year for school tax elections. We saw a 39% increase in total available funds compared to 2023. 2,249 initiatives went to vote in 2024. We closed out the year at $113.9 billion with a 75% national passage rate. This surge highlights the growing focus on securing adequate resources for school districts nationwide. Data collected annually reveals that school districts continue to prioritize bond categories related to specialty areas, athletic facilities, and instructional spaces.

SchoolBondFinder is currently tracking 1,962 bonds, as of August 15th, 2025 with a current passage rate of 77% (excluding Proposed and Watchlist). To date $34 billion is available in potential funding for 2025, but that does not include many of the watchlist initiatives with funds yet to be determined. In August, 22 bonds passed valued at $426 million. The next election for bonds is in November. There are 175 proposed bonds valued at $19 billion on the ballot for November. More than half of the 749 bonds passed to date are focused on specialty areas, including physical infrastructure, development, and upgrades. We are currently tracking 349 bonds on our watchlist for 2026.

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