In looking at SchoolBondFinder.com’s historical data, we find that Presidential Election years make for an increased quantity of opportunities going to vote across the country. This is because it is prime time for districts to capitalize on increased voter turnout and gain awareness for critical facilities needs. For example, the number of proposed school tax elections in May 2022 was 261, in May 2023 was 233 and in May 2024 there are currently 384 for the remainder of the year. Prior Presidential Election years 2016 and 2020 both closed out with a 79% national passage rate representing $72.7 billion and $63.6 billion respectively. The current national passage rate sits at 74% allowing for only a little ground to be gained to reach prior Presidential Election year national passage rates. It is still too early to tell what the estimated total dollars may represent with most districts currently in the planning stages for the big November 2024 election date. But if the past two banner years are any indication, this could be a significant year for school tax elections.
While some areas of the United States may have more trouble than others in passing school tax elections (OR, MT, ND, OH, WV and NH all below 60% average passage rates), others continue to pass referenda along very high average passage rates (WY, KY, TN, AL, GA, VA all above 95%). Interestingly, OR, MT and ND rely on local capital project funding at 97%, 99% and 95% respectively with OH, WV, and NH only relying on local capital project funding at 67%, 37% and 49% respectively. When looking to very high passage states, the reliance on local capital project funding is also variable: WY (-1%), KY (55%), TN (98%), AL (68%), GA (86%) and VA (87%).
While these numbers reflect only one area of education funding (capital expenditures), one may wonder why do some states have higher passage rates than others regardless of the amount of reliance on local funding? The outcome of local school tax elections remains a locally driven decision that impacts local and state economics as well as educational outcomes. It can easily be argued that due to their direct local impact, these local school tax elections matter the most in a Presidential Election year even though they may come last on a voters’ ballot.
What can stakeholders do in this critical year to support school districts taking on the high stakes role of running a school tax election?
Firstly, ask what your company can do to ensure success for the district. With approximately 10% of all public-school districts running a school tax election each year, there can be a knowledge gap for what it takes to be successful. Asking where a district may need support is the best place to start. Whether that support be in providing proposals, white papers or even a presentation to the board, the district needs all hands-on deck to ensure that pitfalls are avoided, and stakeholders have a chance to ask pertinent questions.
Second, be patient. School tax elections are high stakes and most superintendents only run one school tax election in their entire career. It’s important to note that by sharing your expertise, you are helping district administrations in not only expanding their direct knowledge but also their peers. As with most industries, administrators share information, and that shared knowledge will indirectly shape other school tax elections across the country.
What can districts do to ensure successful passage of their school tax election?
As with any well-executed plan, you will need time and the right team to ensure proper deployment of the school tax election. If your district does not have in-house experts or experience, ask your peers for recommendations to find a stakeholder who can guide the more complicated areas of the school tax election. It’s also extremely beneficial to collaborate and network with your peers to learn what mistakes to avoid and what has led to their successes. Making a roadmap and timeline to a successful school tax election does not have to be complicated but will require thoughtful planning and a coordinated public information campaign to bring success. Be mindful to engage all stakeholders: parents, alumni, teachers, students, solution providers, businesses, retirees, PTAs, etc. Also, remind district employees of your state’s ethics rules regarding school tax elections and follow them to the letter.
It’s equally important to understand what your community will support. A survey that gathers feedback through multiple methods and from all voting blocs will give better insight into what your community is willing to place their vote behind. This information will aid in considering what projects or items make it on the ballot and which do not. Also, use this opportunity for long-range facilities planning and debt repayment. It may be necessary for your district to consider school tax elections on a phased cycle due to student population growth, consolidation, or aging infrastructure. A financial planner can assist districts in creating a debt payoff plan that minimizes future tax burdens which in turn can lead to greater potential for future school tax election passage.