In the decade that SchoolBondFinder has been tracking K–12 school tax elections, we have never seen the total amount of dollars passed nationwide exceed $100B. By year end of 2024, the total amount of dollars passed nationwide was over $115B. 2022 now stands as the second highest year for total amount of dollars passed nationwide at $96B. In the last 3 years (2022–24), school districts across the country have passed a historical total amount of dollars with $292B going to facilities, capital projects, technology, and vital initiatives. By comparison, only $276B passed in the 5 years prior to 2022. It can be deduced that the post-COVID era of school tax elections has been record breaking and boded well for school districts across the country.
When comparing school tax election years accurately, we look to compare similar year to similar year. For example, we would compare the Presidential Election year 2020 to the Presidential Election year 2024. In doing so, we see that 2020 (79%) had a higher percentage passage rate to 2024 (75%). However, even with the lower percentage of passage in 2024, there was a 54% increase in total dollars approved nationwide when compared to the amount that passed in 2020 ($61B).
If looking year over year, the passage rate for 2024 closed out at a healthy 75%, slightly lower than 2023 and 2022’s 77%. Notably, the southeastern part of the United States has consistently seen an over 75% passage rate for the past 5 years. States that have seen below a 40% passage rate in the past 5 years include: Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Delaware.
In terms of quantity of school tax elections, there has been a consistent shift upwards-
- 2020: 1,423
- 2021: 1,556
- 2022: 2,173
- 2023: 2,241
- 2024: 2,261
Three states stood out in terms of individual school districts with high total dollar bond initiatives, they were CA, CO & FL. For 2024, when looking at school districts who passed school tax elections over $750M; California passed $13.7B, Florida passed $4.9B, and Colorado passed $3.75B. In sheer total dollars and quantity of districts who passed school tax elections in 2024, California outpaces all states at $43B and 223 total initiatives.
The biggest individual school tax election that passed nationwide was in Los Angeles Unified where more than 60% of school buildings are over 50 years old and need upgrades. Los Angeles Unified passed $9B to fund new construction to replace aging school facilities and renovations/modernization, technology infrastructure and equipment, safety/security, 21st century learning, CTE facilities, early education facilities, health and wellness spaces, building infrastructure, HVAC, plumbing, electrical, ADA accessibility, enhance/expand outdoor spaces and food services, energy efficiency projects including solar energy infrastructure and purchase electric buses.
The biggest individual school tax election that failed nationwide was in Houston ISD where they have not had a bond since 2012, and the district estimates it now has over $10 billion in needed facilities upgrades. Houston ISD attempted and failed two propositions in November of 2024- Proposition A: New construction to replace, rebuild, co-locate, renovate/expand forty schools; build 3 new Career Centers (in south, west and central divisions); and expand PreK (est. 4,000 new seats). Renovations district-wide including modernization, future ready learning environments, upgrade the Barbara Jordan Career Center Campus and high school CTE spaces, safety/security, secure entrances, access controls, lead removal/abatement, HISD police upgrades, HVAC, and deferred maintenance; and Proposition B: Technology equipment and systems, technology infrastructure and instructional technology.
How Is 2025 Shaping Up?
As of January 31, 2025, the SchoolBondFinder team is tracking over 1,250 pending opportunities nationwide. This number will continue to climb in the next few months as district deadlines approach to get onto spring ballots. Presently, we sit at a 74% passage rate nationwide for the few school tax elections that have taken place in January 2025.
Legislative and Unique Considerations
Many states are also in or entering their legislative sessions which may see school tax election legislation changes. One such state is Washington. Washington is currently considering legislation to lower the threshold to pass a bond from 60% to 55%. In November 2024, only 4 out of 14 bond measures passed. If the threshold had been 55%, 9 would have passed which would have been $1B more funding approved for Washington school districts.
As mentioned earlier, LA voters approved a $9B bond in November of 2024. At least 12 schools in LA have been damaged from the devastating January 2025 fires, including at least 5 that were destroyed completely (2 elementary schools in Pacific Palisades, 3 elementary schools in Pasadena and Altadena). Also, in November 2024 voters approved a $10B State proposition for school construction. Reports indicate that there is already a large backlog of schools that have applied for state dollars and schools gutted by fire will get priority.